Chaos Theory and the Concept of Behaviorism in the Methodology of Researching Public Finances Under Conditions of Uncertainty and Turbulent Changes

Abstract

The article substantiates the possibilities and feasibility of applying chaos theory and the concept of behaviorism as a methodological basis for analyzing the functioning of public finances in conditions of uncertainty and turbulence, taking into account the behavioral reactions of subjects of financial relations. The following methods were used in the research process: abstraction, analysis and synthesis, a systems approach, induction and deduction methods, and the generalization method. The study proves that public finances should be considered as a nonlinear dynamic system with multiple feedbacks, sensitivity to initial conditions and the presence of threshold effects. It is shown that minor changes in basic parameters or institutional rules can cause disproportionate macroeconomic and social consequences, which is explained by the logic of chaos theory. It is substantiated that the concept of behaviorism reveals micro-level behavioral mechanisms of the formation of such nonlinear dynamics due to bounded rationality, cognitive biases, expectations and the level of trust in the state. An integrative theoretical and methodological approach is proposed, which combines nonlinear modeling, regime and scenario analysis with the study of behavioral factors in the public finance system. Prospects for further research are related to the development of formalized nonlinear models of public finances with endogenization of behavioral variables, empirical identification of bifurcation zones of budgetary sustainability, as well as the integration of behavioral experiments and scenario analysis into the practice of forming the state’s financial policy. The results obtained can be used to form an adaptive, risk-oriented and behaviorally sensitive system of public finance management in the conditions of modern crisis and transformation challenges.